[publictransport] Confab/debrief session?

[Alan Parker]

Hi Chris,
An item for the agenda of any meeting.

The Greens in the Victorian Parliament will  thanking Kosky
  for the bike cages and also asking  that a $1,000,000 is also  
needed to be allocated for bike lockers and a better locker  
management system on the 110 or so un-staffed stations. Think about  
it;  bikes cages you can see into can be secure if managed properly  
on staffed stations but that would be gods gift to bike thieves on  
unstaffed stations.
Note my comments on US$102 per barrel oil below and the need
for paradyn shift in transport planning.

Bye Alan


On 29/02/2008, at 11:44 AM, cfsmtb wrote:

> Hi all,
>
> It's been a fortnight since the Kosky media release:
>
> Media release: From the Minister for Public Transport Friday, 15
> February, 2008
> http://modernthings.org/binthebikeban/2008/02/19/media-release-from- 
> the-minister-for-public-transport-friday-15-february-2008/
>
> Was thinking - should we have a debrief or a catch up to chat about  
> the
> campaign, how it progressed, where to fron here etc?
>
> Either online or over a few beverages, what's your thoughts?
>
> cheers,
>
> Chris
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
----------------

Passenger transport : the priorities for climate change and
uncertain oil supplies  (Introduction only)

By  Alan A. Parker

Discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and we have been consuming more than  
is found since the 1980’s. Note that oil production peaked in  
mainland USA in 1971, in Australia and the North Sea in 2001. This is  
why world oil market has been volatile over the last two decades with  
the, inflation adjusted, price of Brent crude increasing from US$23 a  
barrel in 1985 to US$ 102 a barrel on March 1st 2008 an increase of  
443%. Furthermore strong economic growth world-wide, particularly in  
China and India, has greatly increased the demand for oil. A few  
analysts predict oil at $150 barrel soon.

China has the world’s the fastest growing (US$1.65 trillion) economy  
and is now the worlds
second largest oil consumer that ceased to be self sufficient in oil  
in 1995 and in 2005 imported 3.3 million barrels a day. China’s  
Petroleum related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to grow by  
3.5% per year.(DOE/EIA 2007) Consequently, there is now a vigourous  
mainstream media debate about the ever-increasing demand for oil.  
With global oil production stalled around 84.5 million barrels a day  
since 2005 some experts argue that we have already reached  peak oil  
and world production will plateau then start to decline around 2012. 
(ASPO 2007)(Bezdek 2007)

What would that mean? Global economic growth would slow, stop, and  
then reverse; international tensions would soar as nations seek  
access to diminishing supplies, enriching autocratic rulers in  
unstable oil states and taking desperate counter measures like making  
oil from coal and tar sands (without carbon geo sequestration)  
thereby destabilising the climate with huge inputs of carbon dioxide.  
As faltering economies burned less oil carbon emissions would  
increase due to the use of far dirtier fuels because cleaner  
alternative fuels will not be available till around 2020. (Linden 2007)

With world crude oil production peaking and then declining it is a  
unique challenge with a very serious risk of destabilising the worlds  
climate and its economy. Given such unpleasant possibilities why is  
this being allowed to happen? One reason is that in Australia the  
mainstream transport planning paradigm has ignored the uncertainty of  
future oil supplies. Another reason is that few Australian  
politicians have the perception that, energy security is vital for  
national security and oil conservation is just as essential as  
protection from an invading force, for the preservation of a  
democratic way of life. (Carter 2001)(Huddle 1976)

Planners and politicians show little understanding that their is a  
serious risk to manage and that the time to act is now. Worse still  
science based evidence has been ignored and replaced by economic and  
political ideology which is why there is no understanding that clean  
alternative fuels will not be available in time.(Parker 2005)(Bezdek  
2007)

There is need for a paradigm shift in transport planning and  
provision is needed to cope with peak oil and future oil shortages  
and to reduce Australia's contribution to global warming. Of  
particular concern is that in 2006 and 2007 sound research became  
available showing that uncertainty about future crude oil supply  
makes it important to develop a strategy to address the peak in crude  
production, the increased cost of oil imports and inevitable oil  
shortages and to do this before it is too late to mitigate the  
consequence. (Hirsch 2007) (Bezdek 2007)(Heinburgh 2006)(Simmons 2005)

A paradigm shift in transport planning is needed at the strategic  
national and state planning level because the failure  to reduce oil  
demand threatens the well being of all Australians. Today the  
Commonwealth and states have no agreed risk management strategy in  
place and only the WA government has discussed the merits of a oil  
depletion protocol. Their is a need to use market instruments to  
reduce carbon dioxide emissions by  encouraging carbon neutral  
trading and energy conservation much earlier than current proposal to  
do so by  2012 (Stern N. 2006).

It would be prudent for the Commonwealth and State governments to  
make an early start in
implementing the Senate's  (2007) Oil Report recommendations while at  
the same time, developing a risk management strategy to deal with the  
uncertainty of future oil supplies and to introduce energy  
conservation and transport innovations. It would also be prudent to  
consider the unilateral  adoption of an Oil Depletion Protocol that  
is currently being discussed by energy analysts in several countries  
and cities (Heinburgh 2006, 2007)(Simmons 2005)

A paradigm shift in transport planning and provision is also needed  
at regional and local
government level particularly in regard to  low cost transport  
transport policies and transport innovations to greatly increase  the  
use  bicycles, electric bicycle and walking for short trips and to  
use bicycles, electric bicycle to access rail stations and new  
express bus services for long urban car trips (Parker 2001, 2004, 2006) 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://yarrabug.org/pipermail/publictransport_yarrabug.org/attachments/20080301/807057d7/attachment.html